Iowa Democratic Nomination Predictions:

Conclusion: “[Clinton] is the favorite going into the Iowa caucus tomorrow, but not a strong one.”

538 Poll Weighted Average:
Hillary: 48%
Bernie: 42.7%

RCP Poll Average:
Hillary: 47.3%
Bernie: 44%

Huffington Post Pollster Average:
Hillary: 47%
Bernie: 43%

DeMoines/Selzer Poll:
Hillary: 45%
Bernie: 42%
Undecided: 9%

538 Polls-Plus Prediction:
Hillary: 79%
Sanders: 21%

PredictIt Prediction Markets Aggregation:
Hillary: 73%
Sanders: 27%


If you had to put money on one candidate to win, I would choose Hillary Clinton. Hillary is both leading in the polls and prediction markets. Furthermore, Bernie’s support is very concentrated in three caucus districts, so his strength in the polls will not be representative of his likelihood of winning Iowa. But, the above data, in my opinion, misrepresents the closeness of the race. First of all, the number of undecided voters has increased as indicated by the famous Selzer poll. Thats significant: Iowa voters are very much on the fence about the nomination and the actions of undecided voters could shape the outcome of the election. Secondly, the voter file and likely voter screen might underestimated Sander’s support. The voter file and likely voter screens are powerful tools but pollsters are strictly divided about them. Since Sanders does better in random-dialing polls compared to voter file polls, there is a lot of uncertainty that cannot be ignored. All in all, Clinton’s fundamentals are solid and she leads in nearly all poll averages. She is the favorite going into the Iowa caucus tomorrow but not a strong one.

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